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TBR 12 / PHI 1
TBRTampa Bay Rays39%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies61%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline61%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
TBR39%ML +102
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
PHI61%ML -122

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.9 pts

Model has PHI at 64.2% against a pick'em market (50.2%), a 14-point gap, while backing the team with the worse record (87-73 vs 97-63) and far worse offense (3.0 RPG, .570 OPS vs 3.7, .802). The home starter is TBD with fallback stats, so the pitching comparison driving the model is unverified. Siding with Tampa Bay at even money. Total unreliable with an unknown starter in a 1.15 park.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total7.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +115 bovada / U -133 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -122TBR / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+176)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -109 / U -117
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total