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scheduled
TBRTampa Bay Rays36%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies64%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterFreddy PeraltaProbable
Model pickPHI moneyline64%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezProbable
TBR36%ML +145
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
PHI64%ML -174

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.3 pts

Model (64.2%) and market (60.8%) agree on Philadelphia, and the pitching comparison is real: Sánchez at 2.93 ERA / 9.95 K9 over 200 IP versus Peralta at 4.56 ERA / 1.33 WHIP. Citizens Bank at 1.148 park factor plus Peralta's walk-prone profile nudges me over a low 6.5 line, though TBR's .802 OPS against a weak PHI slash line makes the side less than comfortable.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total7.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.576%
O 3.557%
O 4.539%
O 5.523%
O 6.513%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K5.3
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.561%
O 5.544%
O 6.529%
O 7.518%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+145 / -174TBR / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total