MLB / mlb / live
MIL 4 / PHI 1MILMilwaukee Brewers55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
MIL55%ML -125
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PHI45%ML +105
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total7.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 draftkings / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +105MIL / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -113 / U -107
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total