MLB / mlb / live
scheduledMILMilwaukee Brewers47%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterLogan HendersonProbable
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaProbable
MIL47%ML -143
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
PHI53%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.579%
O 4.564%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.512%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.8
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.592%
O 3.581%
O 4.567%
O 5.551%
O 6.536%
O 7.523%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus-143 / +120MIL / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total