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scheduled
MILMilwaukee Brewers55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterShane DrohanConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
MIL55%ML +115
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
PHI45%ML -137

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.3 pts

Essentially a coin flip: model has MIL at 50.4%, market implies 53.4% PHI. Milwaukee's 99-59 record and 4.8 RPG outclass Philadelphia's offense, and Painter's 5.59 ERA with 1.42 WHIP is a liability in a 1.148 park. Wilson's 34.3 IP over 10 starts means heavy bullpen exposure, capping conviction. Park plus Painter argues over 7.5.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K4.6
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K5.3
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 betmgm / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.576%
O 4.560%
O 5.544%
O 6.529%
O 7.518%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+115 / -137MIL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total