MLB / mlb / live
HOU 2 / PHI 1HOUHouston Astros39%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies61%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterCristian JavierConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
HOU39%ML +158
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
PHI61%ML -192
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.5
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Cristian JavierHOU starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -147 draftkings / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+158 / -192HOU / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total