MLB / mlb / live
ATL 5 / PHI 4ATLAtlanta Braves51%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies49%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline51%Model 20260831_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
ATL51%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
PHI49%ML -110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total7.7
Market total8.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler MahleATL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 fanatics / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 draftkings / U +110 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -110ATL / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-177)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total