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STL 4 / PHI 6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
STL53%ML +184
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PHI47%ML -216

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time20.1 pts

Model's 53.3% for STL against a market implying 66.7% home is a 13-point gap I can't justify. Sanchez (2.51 ERA, 10.41 K/9 over 161.2 IP) is the clear comparison over Leahy (3.24, 8.17 K/9), and PHI has the better record and 5.9 RPG. Citizens Bank at 1.148 pushes up, but both starters under 3.50 argues under 8.0.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betmgm / U +128 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +106 fanduel / U -127 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+184 / -216STL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total