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STL 3 / PHI 12
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
PHIHome starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
STL53%ML +140
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PHI47%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.2 pts

Painter's 6.43 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 85.1 IP is a genuine liability, yet PHI is priced -146; STL's 0.812 OPS and 5.6 RPG travel well into a 1.148 park. But the STL starter is TBD with fallback stats, so the 11-point gap vs market implied 57.9% can't be trusted. Lean only, and no total view with one rotation slot unresolved.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 betrivers / U +128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -164STL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total