sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TOR 6 / PHI 7
TORToronto Blue Jays43%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterShane BieberConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260803_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
TOR43%ML +200
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
PHI57%ML -240

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts

Market at 65.9% on PHI vs model 57.5%; I side with the market here. Luzardo (3.36 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 1.16 WHIP over 136.7 IP) is a clear step up on Bieber (5.11 ERA, 1.68 WHIP in 37 IP). Note the team lines look internally inconsistent (PHI 5.4 RPG on .570 OPS, TOR 3.8 RPG on .786 OPS), so I won't push past standard. Citizens Bank at 1.148 park factor plus Bieber's WHIP supports over 8.0.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -116 draftkings / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K6.8Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betonlineag / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.579%over
O 5.566%over
O 6.552%over
O 7.538%over
O 8.526%over
O 9.516%over
O 10.510%over
O 11.56%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+200 / -240TOR / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total