MLB / mlb / live
TOR 7 / PHI 5TORToronto Blue Jays47%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260803_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
TOR47%ML +151
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PHI53%ML -175
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Max ScherzerTOR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -133 draftkings / U +108 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 betrivers / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+151 / -175TOR / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -104 / U -118
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total