MLB / mlb / live
MIA 5 / PHI 6MIAMiami Marlins43%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJanson JunkConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
MIA43%ML +220
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
PHI57%ML -263
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +134 draftkings / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -125 betonlineag / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+220 / -263MIA / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total