MLB / mlb / live
TOR 5 / PHI 4TORToronto Blue Jays40%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies60%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline60%Model 20260803_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
TOR40%ML +180
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
PHI60%ML -213
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
José SorianoTOR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +121 draftkings / U -149 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%under
O 7.529%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+180 / -213TOR / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total