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WSN 10 / PHI 4
WSNWashington Nationals52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJake IrvinConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
PHIHome starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
WSN52%ML +170
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PHI48%ML -199

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.7 pts

Model takes WSN at 52.4% against a market implying 63.3% home, driven by Painter's 6.72 ERA/1.61 WHIP. But it is picking the team with the worse record (55-60) and far worse scoring (3.6 vs 5.3 RPG), and Irvin's 5.56 ERA is no comparison. Side with PHI. Two struggling starters in a 1.148 park argues over 9.5, against the model's 9.11.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 draftkings / U +105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -159 betrivers / U +132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+170 / -199WSN / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -112 / U -109
32 books30 ML23 run line21 total