MLB / mlb / live
scheduledWSNWashington Nationals42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterZack LittellProbable
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoProbable
WSN42%ML +206
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability69%Selected moneyline pick
PHI58%ML -253
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Zack LittellWSN starter / away
Projected K3.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%
O 2.565%
O 3.544%
O 4.526%
O 5.514%
O 6.56%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K6.9
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.596%
O 3.590%
O 4.580%
O 5.567%
O 6.553%
O 7.539%
O 8.527%
O 9.517%
O 10.510%
O 11.56%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+206 / -253WSN / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total