MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / PHI 11NYYNew York Yankees45%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
NYY45%ML +178
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PHI55%ML -212
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 betrivers / U -118 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +106 fanduel / U -110 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 7.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%under
O 7.541%under
O 8.529%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+178 / -212NYY / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total