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LAD 9 / PHI 5
LADLos Angeles Dodgers41%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies59%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterEric LauerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
LAD41%ML -125
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
PHI59%ML +106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.5 pts

Model has PHI at 59% but market implies LAD 52.5%. LAD has superior offense (.743 OPS vs .576) and better record (64-38 vs 56-46). Nola's 5.68 ERA in 103 IP is not a small sample—he's genuinely struggling. Park factor 1.15 pushes total over; market 9.5 aligns with model 9.3. Disagree with model's PHI pick, side with market on LAD.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eric LauerLAD starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.522%over
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +106LAD / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -117 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total