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NYM 4 / PHI 1
NYMNew York Mets46%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies54%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterChristian ScottConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline54%Model 20260713_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
NYM46%ML +105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
PHI54%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.6 pts

Model and market converge tightly on PHI (54.5% vs 55.0%). Nola's 5.75 ERA in 97 IP is real regression; Scott's 3.17 in 54 IP with 10.83 K/9 is legitimate. Extreme park factor (1.15) argues for runs. NYM offense (5.2 RPG, .736 OPS) is significantly stronger than PHI (3.1 RPG, .57 OPS). Lean over 9.5 but pass on side given market efficiency.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Christian ScottNYM starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 fanatics / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -150 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -125NYM / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total