MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / PHI 6NYMNew York Mets45%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260713_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
NYM45%ML +142
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PHI55%ML -172
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betrivers / U -150 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -145 fanatics / U +122 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%over
O 7.541%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.57%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+142 / -172NYM / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U -1
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total