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PIT 6 / PHI 1
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
PHIHome starterAlan RangelConfirmed
PIT47%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
PHI53%ML -130

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.7 pts

Model and market converge on PHI slight favorite (~53% vs 54%), but Rangel has only 12.0 IP this season (reliever usage pattern). Jones with 5.76 ERA in 25 IP is hittable. Extreme park (PF 1.15) pushes totals up but model 9.27 is 1.2 runs under market 10.5. Pass side, lean under on total given pitcher uncertainty and model-market gap.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -151 draftkings / U +130 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Alan RangelPHI starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betrivers / U -140 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+110 / -130PIT / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total