MLB / mlb / live
PIT 0 / PHI 8PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
PIT47%ML +182
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
PHI53%ML -220
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betrivers / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -120 fanduel / U +107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.561%over
O 7.547%over
O 8.534%over
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+182 / -220PIT / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total