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NYM 3 / PHI 15
NYMNew York Mets38%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies62%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
NYM38%ML +161
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
PHI62%ML -195

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.9 pts

Model at 62.4% aligns with market's 63.6% on PHI, both correctly weighting Sánchez's elite 1.82 ERA over 99 IP. However, model projects 8.92 runs vs market 7.5 in a 1.15 park factor venue—that 1.4-run gap is concerning. PHI's .570 OPS is historically poor yet model leans home. The extreme park flag is key: Citizens Bank inflates totals, lean over 7.5 despite ace Sánchez.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 fanduel / U -139 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%under
O 6.556%under
O 7.542%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+161 / -195NYM / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total