MLB / mlb / live
NYM 2 / PHI 6NYMNew York Mets49%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies51%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
NYM49%ML +155
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
PHI51%ML -185
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
David PetersonNYM starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betmgm / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 betrivers / U -104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+155 / -185NYM / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total