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MIA 2 / PHI 8
MIAMiami Marlins36%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies64%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline64%Model 20260616_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
MIA36%ML +154
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
PHI64%ML -185

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.0 pts

Model at 64.2% vs market 60.8% on PHI is modest disagreement. Phillips' 1.86 ERA in 48 IP is likely regressing; Luzardo's 4.35 ERA more sustainable. Citizens Bank PF 1.15 inflates totals; model 8.67 vs market 8.0 aligns with park. MIA's .774 OPS (73 games) beats PHI's .570, but home field and pitcher comparison favor PHI slightly.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +104 fanduel / U -121 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+154 / -185MIA / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total