MLB / mlb / live
CHW 5 / PHI 9CHWChicago White Sox52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterTyler Gilbert
Model pickCHW moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAaron Nola
CHW52%ML +141
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
PHI48%ML -170
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap12.5 pts
Model picks CHW at 52% but market has PHI at 61%. Gilbert's 18.0 ERA in 1.0 IP is absurdly small sample; CHW offense is elite (6.4 RPG, .729 OPS) but Nola at home in a hitter park favors PHI. Extreme park factor argues over on 9.0 total.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+141 / -170CHW / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total