MLB / mlb / live
CHW 5 / PHI 9CHWChicago White Sox52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterTyler Gilbert
Model pickCHW moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAaron Nola
CHW52%ML +141
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PHI48%ML -170
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.2 pts
Model picks CHW at 52% but market has PHI at 61%. Gilbert's 18.0 ERA in 1.0 IP is absurdly small sample; CHW offense is elite (6.4 RPG, .729 OPS) but Nola at home in a hitter park favors PHI. Extreme park factor argues over on 9.0 total.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+141 / -170CHW / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total