MLB / mlb / live
CHW 6 / PHI 3CHWChicago White Sox56%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies44%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterBrandon Eisert
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAndrew Painter
CHW56%ML +117
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
PHI44%ML -138
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.1 pts
Model leans CHW at 56% vs market's 45%, an 11-point gap flagged as large disagreement. CHW offense is elite (6.1 RPG, .729 OPS) vs PHI's weak .570 OPS. However, both pitchers lack IP/ERA data despite 'full' quality—structural uncertainty. Citizens Bank 1.15 park factor pushes total, but market at 10.0 already prices it in; model's 9.25 suggests under value.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+117 / -138CHW / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total