MLB / mlb / live
SDP 2 / PHI 3SDPSan Diego Padres37%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies63%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker Buehler
Model pickPHI moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
SDP37%ML +190
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability67%Selected moneyline pick
PHI63%ML -232
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.4 pts
Buehler's stats are completely null despite data_quality='full'—cannot evaluate away pitcher. Sánchez shows 0.00 ERA in only 6.0 IP over 10 starts (0.6 IP/start is impossible). Data integrity failure makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Model predicts 9.11 runs vs market 7.5 in extreme hitter park, but without valid pitcher data I cannot assess whether that gap is structural or noise.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+190 / -232SDP / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total