MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / PHI 1CLECleveland Guardians52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterParker Messick
Model pickCLE moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAndrew Painter
CLE52%ML -116
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PHI48%ML -103
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts
Model predicts CLE 52% vs market 54%, good convergence. But missing pitcher IP/ERA/K9/WHIP makes both sides opaque. Model total 9.27 vs market 7.5 is a 1.77-run gap in extreme hitter park (PF 1.15). Structural total miss forces lean confidence.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-116 / -103CLE / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -121
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total