MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / PHI 1CLECleveland Guardians52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterParker Messick
Model pickCLE moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAndrew Painter
CLE52%ML -116
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
PHI48%ML -103
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.8 pts
Model predicts CLE 52% vs market 54%, good convergence. But missing pitcher IP/ERA/K9/WHIP makes both sides opaque. Model total 9.27 vs market 7.5 is a 1.77-run gap in extreme hitter park (PF 1.15). Structural total miss forces lean confidence.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-116 / -103CLE / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -121
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total