MLB / mlb / live
CLE 1 / PHI 0CLECleveland Guardians52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterGavin Williams
Model pickCLE moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
CLE52%ML +153
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability38%Selected moneyline pick
PHI48%ML -185
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.3 pts
Model has CLE at 52% while Pinnacle implies PHI 63% — a massive 11-point gap favoring the home side. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 60 IP with 0.50 WHIP is elite; Williams' 5.40 ERA/1.60 WHIP is poor. Model's 9.35 total vs market 6.5 is a 2.85-run structural miss, likely overweighting park factor while underweighting Sánchez's dominance. Side with market on both.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+153 / -185CLE / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -116 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total