MLB / mlb / live
COL 0 / PHI 6COLColorado Rockies37%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies63%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterTomoyuki Sugano
Model pickPHI moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
COL37%ML +250
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability73%Selected moneyline pick
PHI63%ML -311
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.7 pts
Away pitcher Sugano has zero recorded IP/ERA/K9 data despite 10 starts—a data quality failure that undermines both moneyline and total. Model at 62.9% vs market 73.2% for PHI is a massive 10.3pp gap flagging structural issue. Park factor 1.15 and model total 8.92 vs market 8.5 lean over, but can't trust margin without Sugano's stats.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+250 / -311COL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total