MLB / mlb / live
CIN 4 / PHI 1CINCincinnati Reds42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterJesús Luzardo
CIN42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
PHI58%ML -143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.7 pts
Away pitcher Chase Burns has completely null stats (0.0 IP, no ERA/K9/WHIP) despite 10 starts listed—clear data error. Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in only 6.0 IP this season is also unreliable. Model predicting 8.8 total in extreme hitter park (PF 1.15) vs market 8.5 is reasonable, but without real pitcher data I cannot validate either side or total with any confidence.
extreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -143CIN / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total