MLB / mlb / live
COL 9 / PHI 7COLColorado Rockies55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterChase Dollander
Model pickCOL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterJesús Luzardo
COL55%ML +180
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability34%Selected moneyline pick
PHI45%ML -220
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap21.0 pts
Market has PHI at 66%, model has COL at 55%. Dollander has null stats (data_quality=full but no IP/ERA). Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample. Market knows more here. Total at 9.21 vs 7.5 line is extreme; park factor 1.15 but pitcher uncertainty high.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+180 / -220COL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +101 / U -124
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total