MLB / mlb / live
OAK 1 / PHI 9OAKOakland Athletics42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterLuis Severino
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
OAK42%ML +158
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
PHI58%ML -190
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.7 pts
Model has PHI 58% vs market 63%; offense_defense_mismatch fired (PHI 15-20, worse record and 4.3 RPG vs OAK 18-16, 4.7 RPG). Sánchez stats (6 IP, 0.00 ERA) are extreme small-sample noise. Extreme park (1.15 PF) pushes total over 9 but market already prices it at 9.0. Lean OAK on mismatch logic.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+158 / -190OAK / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total