MLB / mlb / live
SFG 5 / PHI 6SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies44%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterAdrian Houser
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterTim Mayza
SFG56%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
PHI44%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.2 pts
Both starters are TBD with fallback stats showing minimal IP (6.0 and 4.0). No way to assess the actual matchup. Market data is stale so no anchor point. Extreme park factor argues for inflated total but without knowing who's pitching this is unplayable.
pitcher data fallbackmarket data missingextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -145SFG / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total