MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / PHI 3SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies44%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLogan Webb
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
SFG56%ML +122
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
PHI44%ML -147
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.6 pts
Model has SFG at 55.7% but market implies PHI 57.3% — a meaningful divergence. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample noise, but Webb's 10.80 ERA in 5 IP is real struggle. Model's 9.28 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.28-run gap in a hitter park; both offenses are scuffling (PHI 3.7 RPG, SFG 3.9 RPG). Lean PHI on Webb's form, lean under on offensive context despite park.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+122 / -147SFG / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -113 / U -108
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total