MLB / mlb / live
ATL 3 / PHI 1ATLAtlanta Braves55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
ATL55%ML +106
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
PHI45%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.6 pts
Both starters showing 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP signals extreme small-sample noise. ATL's 6.6 RPG vs PHI's 3.6 RPG is decisive offensive comparison. Model total at 9.32 vs market 7.0 is a 2.3-run gap in a hitter's park with ace matchup—structural miss. Market and team quality favor ATL lean, total leans under toward 7.0.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+106 / -125ATL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total