MLB / mlb / live
ATL 4 / PHI 2ATLAtlanta Braves42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterGrant Holmes
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAndrew Painter
ATL42%ML +102
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
PHI58%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.1 pts
Model picks PHI (57.5%) over market (52.6%) despite ATL's superior offense (6.7 vs 3.1 RPG, .789 vs .57 OPS). Painter has 2 starts with no usable stats—fallback risk. Holmes (5.4 ERA, 1.4 WHIP) is hittable. Extreme park (1.15 PF) + ATL's offense argues over 8.0. Taking ATL.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -120ATL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+123)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -107
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total