MLB / mlb / live
ARI 5 / PHI 4ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies60%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMichael Soroka
Model pickPHI moneyline60%Model production_v1
PHIHome starterJesús Luzardo
ARI40%ML +151
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
PHI60%ML -181
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+151 / -181ARI / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total