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cancelled
BALBaltimore Orioles41%
NYYNew York Yankees59%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterShane BazConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
NYYHome starterElmer RodríguezProbable
BAL41%ML +100
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
NYY59%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts

Model's 59.2% on NYY is only modestly above the market's 55.6%, and the starter comparison belongs to Baz (4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 179.2 IP) over Rodriguez (5.40 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in 26.2 IP). Home team and slightly better offense (4.6 RPG, .692 OPS) is the only reason to side NYY; no conviction. Small over lean on 7.0 given Rodriguez's traffic, tempered by the 0.93 park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Cancelled / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 draftkings / U -150 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Elmer RodríguezNYY starter / home
Projected K4.3
Best price at 5.55.5O +137 betonlineag / U -152 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.561%
O 4.542%
O 5.526%
O 6.515%
O 7.57%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -120BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -121
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total