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scheduled
BALBaltimore Orioles47%
NYYNew York Yankees53%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
NYYHome starterBrendan BeckConfirmed
BAL47%ML -105
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
NYY53%ML -111

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.9 pts

NYY at 92-67 and 5.4 RPG against a 78-81 BAL club scoring 3.4 RPG is a clear talent gap, and Brandon Young's 1.36 WHIP with 7.54 K/9 doesn't project well in this spot. Model's 59.2% sits only modestly above the market's 55.3%, so no large comparison. Home starter is TBD/fallback, so the 7.78 total projection against a 6.5 line is unusable; passing on the total.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.7
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K5.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.540%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-105 / -111BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -125 / U +101
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total