MLB / mlb / live
scheduledTBRTampa Bay Rays46%
NYYNew York Yankees54%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterIan SeymourProbable
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
NYYHome starterGerrit ColeProbable
TBR46%ML +130
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
NYY54%ML -155
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total7.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K6.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.571%
O 5.556%
O 6.541%
O 7.527%
O 8.517%
O 9.510%
O 10.56%
O 11.53%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+130 / -155TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total