MLB / mlb / live
TBR 6 / NYY 1TBRTampa Bay Rays46%
NYYNew York Yankees54%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedConfirmed
TBR46%ML +108
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYY54%ML -127
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total7.2
Market total6.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -119 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +140 bovada / U -167 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.525%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+108 / -127TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.0O -109 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total