MLB / mlb / live
scheduledTBRTampa Bay Rays46%
NYYNew York Yankees54%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew RasmussenProbable
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedProbable
TBR46%ML +114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
NYY54%ML -138
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total7.2
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K5.7
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.580%
O 4.566%
O 5.550%
O 6.535%
O 7.522%
O 8.513%
O 9.57%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.2
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.578%
O 3.559%
O 4.540%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+114 / -138TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -118 / U -104
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total