MLB / mlb / live
NYM 12 / NYY 2NYMNew York Mets44%
NYYNew York Yankees56%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
NYYHome starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
NYM44%ML +140
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
NYY56%ML -165
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 draftkings / U -156 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -110 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -165NYM / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+129)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total