MLB / mlb / live
NYM 4 / NYY 6NYMNew York Mets43%
NYYNew York Yankees57%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260907_auto
NYYHome starterCarlos RodónConfirmed
NYM43%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
NYY57%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betrivers / U -120 betmgm8 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Carlos RodónNYY starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 betrivers / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132NYM / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total