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COL 3 / NYY 10
COLColorado Rockies35%
NYYNew York Yankees65%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterRyan FeltnerConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline65%Model 20260907_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedConfirmed
COL35%ML +235
Base model probability65%Moneyline only
NYY65%ML -294

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.8 pts

Market implies 74.2% for NYY versus the model's 65.3%; the gap looks like model underweighting the pitching mismatch — Fried at 2.73 ERA/0.99 WHIP against Feltner's 5.91 ERA/1.58 WHIP. COL's .531 OPS is the weakest input here. Side is right, price offers little value. Fried plus a 0.93 park factor and a punchless road offense argues under 9.0.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betmgm / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+235 / -294COL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -1 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total