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BOS 1 / NYY 16
BOSBoston Red Sox59%
NYYNew York Yankees41%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
NYYHome starterWill WarrenConfirmed
BOS59%ML -144
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
NYY41%ML +124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.3 pts

Market and model agree on Boston, and the pitching gap justifies it: Suarez at 3.35 ERA/1.20 WHIP vs Warren at 4.39/1.42. The offense_defense_mismatch flag is fair since BOS scores 3.9 RPG to NYY's 4.7, but the .736 OPS suggests the run scoring lags the underlying quality. Model's 9.13 total is above the 8.0 line despite a 0.93 park factor; I lean under.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 betonlineag / U -145 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betmgm / U +122 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-144 / +124BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total