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HOU 5 / NYY 1
HOUHouston Astros37%
NYYNew York Yankees63%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline63%Model 20260824_auto
NYYHome starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
HOU37%ML +138
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
NYY63%ML -163

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.5 pts

Cole's 3.11 ERA, 9.71 K/9 and 1.07 WHIP over 92.7 IP is a clear comparison on Wesneski (4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, only 27.7 IP). Model 62.6% vs market 59.1% is a modest gap, so standard rather than strong. On the total, the model's 8.87 ignores the 0.933 park factor and Houston's 3.9 RPG; under 8.0 is the better side.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 draftkings / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 betmgm / U +115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -163HOU / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -109
33 books31 ML25 run line23 total