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BOS 0 / NYY 1
BOSBoston Red Sox42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPatrick SandovalConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260824_auto
NYYHome starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
BOS42%ML +133
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY58%ML -156

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts

Model (57.7%) and market (59%) agree on NYY, and the pitching comparison is clear: Schlittler at 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 10.99 K/9 versus Sandoval's 4.54 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. The model's 8.54-run total sits 1.5 above the 7.0 market line despite a 0.93 park factor and the home ace; that gap looks structural, so lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.5
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betonlineag / U -105 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -125 betmgm / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+133 / -156BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total