sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ATL 4 / NYY 5
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
NYYNew York Yankees53%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterChris SaleConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260803_auto
NYYHome starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
ATL47%ML -149
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYY53%ML +125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts

Fading the model here: it takes NYY at 53% while market implies 43%, despite NYY scoring 2.8 RPG with a .692 OPS against Sale (2.08 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 1.02 WHIP). ATL has the better record (70-46) and offense (4.7 RPG, .789 OPS). Model's 9.25 total is 1.75 over the 7.5 line in a 0.93 park with both starters under 3.50; under is the cleaner read.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatchace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chris SaleATL starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -130 fanatics / U +145 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.523%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -129 betrivers / U +124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.537%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-149 / +125ATL / NYY moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total