MLB / mlb / live
PIT 0 / NYY 2PITPittsburgh Pirates45%
NYYNew York Yankees55%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedConfirmed
PIT45%ML +155
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYY55%ML -186
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betmgm / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -113 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+155 / -186PIT / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML22 run line23 total