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PIT 5 / NYY 8
PITPittsburgh Pirates54%
NYYNew York Yankees46%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
NYYHome starterRyan WeathersConfirmed
PIT54%ML -102
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYY46%ML -116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Model likes PIT at 54.3%, market has it near 50/50 (NYY -112). PIT's 6.9 RPG offensive surge is real (100 GP sample), while NYY sits at 4.0 RPG. Ashcraft's 3.49 ERA over 113 IP is legitimate vs Weathers' 4.15. Model total of 8.37 vs market 7.5 reflects PIT offense; lean over given park factor isn't extreme and both starters allow runs.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 betrivers / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%under
O 3.586%under
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betrivers / U -108 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-102 / -116PIT / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total